老赖越多,贷款越难?——来自地区诚信水平与上市公司银行借款的证据

本文首次利用最高人民法院发布的失信被执行人数据(俗称“老赖”)度量地区诚信水平,并以2003—2014年A股上市公司为样本实证检验地区诚信水平对上市公司银行借款比例的影响。研究发现,相比诚信水平较高的地区,上市公司在失信环境下能够获得更多的银行借款。机制检验的结果表明,上市公司信息透明度更高、受外部监督更多,能够缓解失信环境下企业违约风险的提高。进一步研究还发现,当银行作为原告方的诉讼中“老赖”比例越高时,失信环境对上市公司银行借款比例的作用更加显著;而当企业遭遇行业危机或企业所在城市信用体系建设相对完备时,地区诚信水平的影响会被削弱。该结论在经过一系列内生性和稳健性检验之后,依然成立。本文从银企借贷的视角解释了地区诚信水平对企业融资和发展的作用,也为企业获取信贷资源、缓解融资难问题提供了可行路径。     

辱虐管理与员工主动创新行为研究：基于动机和能力信念视角

基于动机和能力信念视角，构建辱虐管理与员工主动创新行为的多重中介模型，并以成渝双城经济圈内保险、证券、银行等金融行业中的336名企业基层员工为研究对象，对该理论模型进行实证检验。结果发现：辱虐管理对员工主动创新行为具有显著负向影响。其中，内在动机、亲社会动机、自我效能感在两者之间均发挥部分中介作用。即辱虐管理会降低员工内在动机、亲社会动机及自我效能感，而较低水平的内在动机、亲社会动机及自我效能感又会进一步降低员工的主动创新行为。     

Forecasting using supervised factor models

This paper examines the theoretical and empirical properties of a supervised factor model based on combining forecasts using principal components (CFPC), in comparison with two other supervised factor models (partial least squares regression, PLS, and principal covariate regression, PCovR) and with the unsupervised principal component regression, PCR. The supervision refers to training the predictors for a variable to forecast. We compare the performance of the three supervised factor models and the unsupervised factor model in forecasting of U.S. CPI inflation. The main finding is that the predictive ability of the supervised factor models is much better than the unsupervised factor model. The computation of the factors can be doubly supervised together with variable selection, which can further improve the forecasting performance of the supervised factor models. Among the three supervised factor models, the CFPC best performs and is also most stable. While PCovR also performs well and is stable, the performance of PLS is less stable over different out-of-sample forecasting periods. The effect of supervision gets even larger as forecast horizon increases. Supervision helps to reduce the number of factors and lags needed in modelling economic structure, achieving more parsimony.     

新形势下我国农民专业合作社外部监管完善的必要性

《农民专业合作社法》颁布实施以来,我国专业合作社发展迅速,但空壳合作社较多,合作社套取国家优惠政策常有发生。与国际合作社相比,我国合作社数量不少但质量亟待提升。2007年以来我国"重扶持,轻监管"的合作社法律和政策体系是否适应专业合作社由数量发展向质量提升的新形势?我国农民专业合作社外部监管需要加快完善吗?本文通过构建政府与合作社间的演化博弈模型分析合作社经营过程中二者之间的博弈行为和策略均衡,然后结合案例进一步展开分析。研究结果表明:(1)政府监管对于促进合作社规范经营至关重要;(2)缺乏长效监管机制会导致一些合作社再次采取俘获行为;(3)新的时代背景下我国应加快完善专业合作社的监管体系,形成适合国情的有效监管体系,政府应该在立法和政策上加快推进完善合作社监管体系。     

食品安全监督管理中快速检测技术的应用研究

食品在生产、流通过程中,需对其质量进行安全检测,传统检测方法耗时长,对食品的生产、流通产生较大影响。快速检测技术的出现,使食品安全检测能在较短的时间内得出结果,在监管工作中得到了广泛的应用。本文阐述了食品安全监管中常用的快速检测技术,并对其应用进行分析,为食品安全监管提供参考。     

国家审计促进经济高质量发展的机理研究——基于中国省级面板数据的实证分析

推动经济高质量发展不仅是保持经济持续健康发展的内在要求,也是适应我国社会主要矛盾变化以及全面建成小康社会、全面建设社会主义现代化强国的必然要求。本文围绕国家审计促进经济高质量发展这一主题,利用主成分分析法测度2012年-2016年中国内地31个省、自治区、直辖市的经济增长质量。研究表明,国家审计通过揭示功能、处理处罚功能和建议功能的不同组合协同作用所产生的抵御效应和综合效应,可促进经济高质量发展。因此,审计机关应在全面揭示问题的基础上进行处理处罚、提出合理的审计建议并督促审计建议被采纳,从而促进经济高质量发展。     

Capital inflows,monetary policy,and financial imbalances

Ahead of the global financial crisis, financial imbalances built up across advanced economies as credit grew and was increasingly funded in wholesale financial markets. This paper investigates empirically three potential drivers of the build-up of these financial imbalances: rising global imbalances (capital flows); loose monetary policy; and inadequate supervision and regulation. We perform panel data regressions for OECD countries from 1999 to 2007 to explore the relative importance of these factors. We find that differences in the build-up of wholesale-funded credit were driven by the strength of capital inflows. Moreover, we document an interaction effect, whereby the effect of inflows on the build-up was amplified where the supervisory and regulatory environment was relatively weak. In contrast, differences in monetary policy did not significantly affect differences across countries in the build-up of these financial imbalances ahead of the crisis.     

Stress tests and asset quality reviews of banks: A policy announcement tool

It is common in the supervision of banks to perform and disclose a simultaneous standardized assessment of their asset quality, organizational effectiveness, strategic viability and resilience to financial turmoil. By investigating the European Central Bank 2014 Comprehensive Assessment and the stock reactions of the banks to its findings, we find that this process provides limited assistance to the market in sorting good from troubled banks. Notwithstanding, the market adjusts to these findings, since it understands that they signal the stance of supervisory policy toward banking activities, which begets the level of regulatory risk and cost for the supervised banks.     

美国互联网金融监管及对我国的启示

近年来,我国互联网金融快速发展,引起社会各界的广泛关注。本文对美国互联网金融发展历程与主要业态、监管政策与实践进行了分析研究,在此基础上提出促进和规范我国互联网金融发展的监管思路和政策建议。     

杠杆率新规对上市商业银行信贷约束的有效性研究

为研究杠杆率新规对银行信贷的影响,本文选用2004-2012年我国上市商业银行的杠杆率以及其他影响银行信贷指标的变量,就杠杆率标准的实施对约束我国商业银行信贷规模的有效性进行了实证分析。结果表明,杠杆率与我国商业银行的信贷规模呈负相关关系,杠杆率的监管要求会导致杠杆率不达标的银行信贷增长放缓;就影响程度而言,杠杆率对大型国有商业银行信贷规模的影响大于对股份制商业银行和城市商业银行的影响。